Dr. Driving's Selection of Driving Psychology Issues -- Part 13
More Aggressive Drivers and Road Rage

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Murder statistics (was Re: Ciao)
Date: 1997/08/02
Message-Id: <5s0gnl$b5u@capefear.cs.unc.edu>
Newsgroups: misc.writing

In article vvv , a reader wrote:

... and who, exactly, is making this association?

The mainstream press. In particular, I have seen articles in the San Francisco Chronicle and San Jose Mercury News. It was an article in the Merc that sent me off to try and understand how they were reasoning.

Ah, OK. The alarmist press, which may or may not have actually bothered to read the statistics they are fed over the fax, may or may not have bothered to read the actual data, and may or may not be *competent* t read the actual data. The folk who have given us a history of false crises based on flagrant disregard of the data. That press.

These statistics are used to make this claim in the following way:
1) The number of automobile related deaths each year is high. The NHTSA reports 41,798 deaths in 1995. 41% were alcohol related. (http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/people/ncsa/ovrfacts.html#Summary) A "significant number" of automobile deaths are road rage related. The AAA Foundation for Driving Psychology study reported studying 10,037 fatalities in a 5 year period. They report 1705 road rage incidents in 1995. They do not report the number of fatalities. [they do report a small total of 218 in the study] (http://www.aaafts.org/aaa/text/roadrage.htm) It's six and a half years, not five. There were 10,037 incidents, not fatalities. There were 218 deaths over six years, not in 1995. Over the six year period there were actually approximately 240,000 traffic fatalities. Of those approx 240,000, they came up with 218 "road rage" deaths, not all of which are homicides.
You are correct, I missed an edit. It is "incidents" not fatalities." OTOH you have misread my statement. I said "total of 218 in the study" not "218 in 1995."

This "significant number" makes up nine one-hundredths of one percent of the fatalities, even if they are all homicides, and they ae not.

No. The sample deaths make up nine one-hundredths of one percent. You are not extrapolating from the sample to the general population.

The "sample" *is* the entire set of fatalities. The study didn't select a cohort of, say, 1000 accidents and see how many of those were "road rage." I collected *all* reports on *all* accidents that it could find. It *is* nine one-hundredths of one percent of the fatalities.

Yes they do. That's what this is all about. In the 1995 data, 15% were strangers, 40% were unknown.

OK. I must have missed that breakdown in the online version. 'tis trivial to adjust. And, of course, one needs to assign a fraction of the 40% to strangers, since it is probable that not all unsolved murders were committed by acquaintances. A first order approximation would be that 1/3 of those are committed by strangers, so that the stranger total is in the vicinity of 28%

That's not a "first order approximation." It's a wild guess. Common sense suggests that the unsolved cases have a higher proportion of stranger killings, but imposing any number on that is simple speculation.

In fact, having a higher number of stranger killings in the unknown group is suggestive that the rate of killing by strangers is going *down* not up. Let's say that the proportion of killings in the unknown group *is* higher than in the solved group as you assume. Now, let's solve a bunch of them. What will happen? The "killed by strangers" group will grow precipitously.

But what has happened? The proportion of unknown killings has been dropping the past few years after years of rising, while the proportion of known stranger killings has been essential stable. If the rate of killings by strangers is rising, it would be rising much *faster* than the proportion of unknowns is falling. It ain't the case. If you assume that the proportion of stranger killings in the unknown group is larger than that in the known group, then the data suggests that the rate of killing by strangers is relatively *falling*.

The road death numbers are compared to the FBI reporting statistics for homicides and the conclusion is reached that if even half of the road deaths are road-rage than most people who are killed in the US are killed by strangers.

What? If wishes were horses, then beggars would fly. There is no reason to assume that half of the road deaths are road-rage. The study you report can claim only 0.09% of the cases. Where did that other 49.9 percent come from?

Another straw man. But as long as you want to do math: A study of 10,0037 samples randomly drawn from a population of several million accidents showing 218 deaths suggests that about ten times that many deaths were due to road rage, ie 21,800 or about 3500/year, in that time frame, plus or minus an error factor. There are valid approaches to extrapolate from small population studies to the population as a whole. However, I have not seen enough data on the AAA study to be able to assign a beta.

The sample was explicitly *not* random. The entire set of accidents was "sampled" to come up with those incidents. Of course, the sampling was poor, but that's the breaks. The study is not a good measure of "road rage" killings. It is even worse to make a bizillion assumptions in order to extrapolate it out.

The most profound assumption made in the above extrapolation, which is actually truly bizarre, is that *all* accidents are due to "incidents" of this particular kind of aggressive driving. You are assuming that the 10,0037 "incidents" were randomly sampled from the number of accidents and that they *all* just happened to be examples of this "road rage" and aggressive driving stuff. That's not how the study was done. What a crock.

Moreover, you are assuming that all of the 218 deaths are due to road rage, and are, in fact homicides. There is no reason to believe this. My personal experience in evaluating about 5000 deaths of various causes suggests that the most common victim of "aggressive driving" is the aggressive driver who loses control of his car (most are young males), not a bystander. But, I have no data to support it, so I won't pretend to any numbers. I will only state that the assumption that even a majority of the 218 deaths are homicides is unfounded.

As Bill has pointed out, there are a lot of problems with this line of reasoning, including

* The AAA study is of a small sample of accidents.

They didn't systematically study *any* set cohort of accidents. They merely pulled reports of incidents out of the papers and from police reports. If this study is representative, then less than 1/10th of one percent of traffic fatalities are due to road rage, and any extension into homicide rates in general is bullshit. If this study is not representative (which it is not), then it is meaningless and any extention into general homicide rates is bullshit.

If their study is random, than it is not meaningless. AFAIK there isn't enough evidence available about the methodology to make that determination.

Yes you do. You know exactly how they got their data. They did a search of all the newspapers and police reports they could find and came up with some numbers. If it was done well, then the sample is the entire set of accidents. If it was done poorly, then it doesn't matter.

Independently, you are focusing on the wrong percentage. It doesn't matter how many accidental deaths occur on the road, what matters is how many "murders" occur there. There is a valid argument to be had about how road rage relates to "murder," but it is independent of the percentage of highway deaths that are road rage related.

It matters how many fatalities there were. Of about 240000 fatalities, they could find 218 which could be attributed to "incidents" of "aggressive driving." You are right that there is no way to know how many of these 218 are, in fact, homicides. You do know, however, what the sample set of fatalities these 218 were from -- the 240000.

If the question was "are you more likely to be accidentally killed by a stranger than an acquaintance in the US?" rather than "murdered by" the NHTSA numbers alone would say "yes."

Nope. The NHTSA numbers say nothing of the sort. For one thing, you can look to see where most murders occur and what weapons were used. The number of homicides (and, remember, homicide includes both murder and manslaughter) performed with a car or on the road is small. Your extrapolations, excuse me, the extrapolations made by these journalists, fails the most simple reality test. The assumptions made about the sampling are faulty. The study is not random. Any extrapolation to the general population is BS.

Exactly.

Yes, I think we are in violent agreement on this, since I came to the conclusion that you simply can't tell.

Then we agree. The contention that the number of homicides by strangers is "rising" and a "growing problem," is pure speculation, and should be treated as such.

There *is* good evidence that the number of killings by persons known by the victim is much higher than that of strangers. In the 1995 data, for instance, with 45 of the cases known to be by family/acquaintance, 15% known to be strangers, then for the percentage of stranger killings to be higher than acquaintance/family killings, then a minimum of 90% of the "unknown" group would have to be strangers. That's a hell of an assumption. Looking at the historical changes in the relationship between changes in "unknown" and "stranger" groups, the change is not nearly that dramatic.

But whatever the percentage is, there is *absolutely* no good evidence it is a "rising" or "growing" problem for the nation as a whole.

Road Rage
Date: 1997/08/04
Message-Id: <5s5if3$svn@dfw-ixnews12.ix.netcom.com>
Newsgroups: alt.revenge

In <33e60eb3.2064654@n.ix.netcom.com> a@ix.netcom.com a reader writes:

your passive driving is getting someone angry, it's probably because you think that since you don't have to be somewhere in a hurry that everyone else on the road should fall inline behind you.

There is absolutely NOTHING wrong with a little bit of road rage. Just think of the satisfaction you feel by taking out your .357 and blowing a hole in the head of that moron who just cut you off in traffic... OR, you can run up behind someone doing the speed limit in the right lane and flash your lights or give them the finger... utterly relaxing.

The best thing you can do, however, is wait until all the traffic in front of you is stopped for a mile back from the nearest red light, then put the old Sherman into dual low and DRIVE RIGHT OVER 'EM... the cries of terror, screams of pain and utter panic and confusion is sure to bring a tear of happiness to the most hardened heart of any 'Road Rager'.

er... just what time DO you leave for work and what route do you take?


Date: 1997/08/04
Message-Id: <01bca094$799d7ee0$368493cf@default>
Newsgroups: alt.revenge

What's a good way to deal with anger at the wheel? How about when someone cuts you off or starts to rage on you? Please send some advice that does not involve killing others.

 


Date: 1997/08/04
Message-Id: <33e65f97.2ddf@citizen.infi.net>
Newsgroups: alt.revenge

Rather than do something yourself, endangering good folks including your passengers, just call the police and report that wildly drunk driver! I used to pull off the road to do this, and now just use a cell phone! What could be easier?


Date: 1997/08/04
Message-Id: <33e60eb3.2064654@nntp.ix.netcom.com>
Newsgroups: alt.revenge

your passive driving is getting someone angry, it's probably because you think that since you dont' have to be somewhere in a hurry that everyone else on the road should fall inline behind you. It's rare that I get angry with someone thats not sitting in the left lane daydreaming and doing the speed limit. If I were you I would be more concerned with someone taking revenge on YOU! Keep your monastic way of driving confined to the rightmost lane and you may not attract so much negative attention in the first place.

It's funny no one ever rages at me on the road.

Take care


Date: 1997/08/04
Message-Id: <33e62f0b.303d@webspan.net>
Newsgroups: alt.revenge

Bill Baggs is Uncle Buckle The Safety Buffalo:

your passive driving is getting someone angry, it's probably because you think that since you dont' have to be somewhere in a hurry that everyone else on the road should fall inline behind you.

Is passive another word for safe? Is this your way of saying that if I see a moron in the mirror (that looks just like you) doing 90 mphs in a school zone, that "I am passive" because I'm doing only 35? or even the SPEED LIMIT?

Juz wondering.

It's rare that I get angry with someone thats not sitting in the left lane daydreaming and doing the speed limit. If I were you I would be more concerned with someone taking revenge on YOU! Keep your monastic way of driving confined to the rightmost lane and you may not attract so much negative attention in the first place.

You're a liar. First you assumed that it was "lack of speed" that the original poster was talking about.Why do I say this? Because that is all YOU talk about when the OEM poster didn't say anything to the effect.S/he asked a totally differant question. I really think you DO get quite cranky when someone is going slower than you want,and when you get the option, you drive like a petunia and therefore DANGEROUSLY. Please switch to decaffinated.

It's funny no one ever rages at me on the road.

That's because the *smart* driver lets you go, so s/he can live another day,and could give a rats ass if you die. PLEASE do NOT become a teacher of any kind...let alone a driving instructor.

The Cause Of Road Rage
Date: 1997/08/03
Message-Id: <01bc9fe5$7cfe50a0$c911bcca@acer.nasionet>
Newsgroups: soc.culture.malaysia

My afternoon was spoilt by the driver (Indian decent - not sure whether Tamil or Bengali) of Proton Wira (WEW 7057 - Purplish Color) who has no road courtesy and terribly rude !

I was waiting for 10 mins by the road side for a parking spot and finaly the car on my side was ready to move and I moved my car forward to allow him to dirve out. As I reversed my car to go into the vacated parking lot, come WEW 7057 and just drive his car into the vacated spot (with my car already reversing into it!).

I was naturally angry but kept my cool and asked him 'what's this ?'. He got out of his car with his family and raised his arm at me and said 'Go look somewhere else !'. I felt a sudden rage enveloping me and went for my steering lock ... suddenly my children in the car pleaded me to cool off ! For a moment, I nearly became a road bully and I was thankful that I didn't whack the bastard up !

Now, I won't be too fast in pointing my fingers if I read another case of a road rage incident. It is bastards like the driver of WEW 7057 that provokes the other drivers.

I would like to hear from other road users ... what should be the appropriate response then ???????

Stressed Up Driver


Date: 1997/08/03
Message-Id: <01bca022$1bebc620$1f12bcca@tmnet.tm.net.my>
Newsgroups: soc.culture.malaysia

You should have just whacked the bastard.

Take it from me, I too am an Indian, but when it comes to matters like this, race has no bearing.

If you expect the police to do anything, forget it.

Next time, whack these bastards..............sometimes we have to take the law into our own hands, irrespective of what that spineless creature, our IGP, Tan Sri Rahim says.

Basically, this is the attitude of all Malaysians....................caring Malaysians, my foot.


Date: 1997/08/06
Message-Id: <5s9a1c$jfl$1@towncrier.cc.monash.edu.au>
Newsgroups: soc.culture.malaysia

I don't think anyone can do anything about these inconsiderate drivers. I've had also a similiar experience when I was at 1 Utama shopping centre. Having waited for over 15 minutes for a carpark, an inconsiderate 50+ year old man and his wife just "stole" my car spot and mind you, he was driving a Merc too! (biege colour) You would atleast think that he was well brought up.

Anyway, I was really pissed off, came out of my car and said "I was waiting for 15 minutes, how can you just drive in like that?!!??" and you know what he said to me?? "Why so angry?" and when I replied that it was not right for him to just take my parking spot after I have waiting so long for it, he basically ignored me and also had the cheek to scribble down my car number then walked off.

Had I been a guy, I would really think about smashing his car up. It is people like these that deserve to be beaten up or have their car wrecked!

I agree an earlier post that it has nothing to do with race. It's just plain old Malaysian rudeness, inconsiderate reckless drivers. There's nothing you can do...

Re: USA Today "Road Rage" article
Date: 1997/08/06
Message-Id: <5sam69$a2a@gap.cco.caltech.edu>
Newsgroups: rec.autos.driving

In article <33e8d7d8.6d91@sprintmail.com>, a reader wrote:

"Aggressive driving" is a subjective assessment of one's driving style. When I lived in South Florida, there were many people on the road who would consider "ordinary" driving aggressive. To me it means the degree to which you pushing your car. A little quicker, a little harder in the turns, a little faster accelerating and braking and maybe some "quick" lane changes. [snip] But there are some whose aggressive driving habits show little or no respect for others, like cutting into a small gap only to have to slam on the brakes and panic those behind. This is called rude or inconsiderate driving in my book.

I agree that there is a language difficulty in talking about these problems since there are two distinct uses of the word "aggressive". I can take an aggressive line through a curve or I can have an aggressive attitute towards other drivers. I think the first is just fine while the second is unacceptable and is the sort of thing that leads to accidents (or collisions or whatever we're supposed to call them now)

"Road rage" is, for lack of a better definition, the inability to cope with life.

I usually associate "road rage" with the second usage of "aggressive".

You know, this is enough to make a liberal conservative!
Date: 1997/07/25
Message-Id: <19970725020101.waa05644@ladder02.news.aol.com>
Newsgroups: alt.politics.usa.republican

If you've ever driven in New York, Boston, or other city, you know that bike riders constantly violate the motor vehicle laws, passing on the right, swerving in and out of traffic, running red lights, not signalling turns, etc.....

Lets put disintergration rays on our cars and blast them into sub atomic particle, them and those slow f@#&$ on the highway that do 50 in the left lane.

Today in the Chicago Tribune, I saw a newspaper article about a planned bicycle ride in downtown San Francisco organised by "Critical Mass", a group of bicyclists who deliberately snarl traffic. What these people do is they ride bicycles en masse during rush hour and the goal is "create frustration for motorists and give them a taste of what cyclists say they expierence every day".

What the bicyclists are complaining about is how they have to compete with cars for the use of the road, and the dangers they face. Now, here's a question I have to ask: If it's so bloody dangerous, why do they still ride bicycles? Some cyclists have scars from their lost encounters with cars. Well, if the buggers weren't in the street with such flimsy bikes, maybe they wouldn't get hurt! Can it be that these idiota are showing the "logic" so many conservatives describe liberals as having? Common sense dictates that if something is too dangerous, you don't do it!!!! (Sounds like "personal responcibility"!)

What this boils down to is that bicyclists know BLOODY (more ways than one!) well thet the odds don't favour them. Yet, they keep the riding up. It's like the case of a skydiver who, after surviving a fall where the chute didn't open complaining about losing an argument with the planet... and getting in a plane to jump again.

If these people can't afford to drive - a legitimate reason - then they should take the Bus. That's what public transport is for. Does anyone moan and whigne when they are driving and lose an argument with a truck? No. Trucks are bigger. It's a fact of life. Cars are bigger than a flimsy bicycle. Deal with it or get off the street. If I had it my way, the bicycle would be outlawed on busy streets in the first place. Bicycles have no place on a street with 2-tonne vehicles going 30 MPH or faster.

If these "critical mass" idiots ever drop their bicycle in front of my car, I'll get out and throw the piece od shit onto the sidewalk where it belongs.

If you grep up "critical mass" and "bicyclists" and read rec.bicycles.*, you'll discover discussions of violence toward drivers. For example, some of these cretins advocate carrying spray paint to use on the windshields to ruin the driver's ability to see where he's going! Others advocate packing heat.

What we need are "fighter cars" to deal with these cretins. How about new options for 1998? How about "Ben Hur" hub caps, a PA microphone, dual "Red Baron" machine guns, and heat-
seeking missiles? Don't forget the SuperJolt(tm) outside door handles to shock the shit out of skitching bicycle messengers? Don't forget the bulletproof glass and Kevlar lining in the doors.

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